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Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Checks and Balances

Checks and Balances has some predictions for the election in a week. Here are mine:

President: Kerry wins, not even close.
Congress: All incumbents win except Mark Kennedy, who loses to Patty Wetterling. John Kline wins handidly over Teresa Daly.
MN House: The current breakdown is 81 Republican to 53 Democrat. The DFL picks up at least 14 seats. There is an outside chance of gaining the majority, but less than 50/50.
MN Senate: Every incumbent wins! No changes!


At 7:38 PM, October 26, 2004, Blogger Patrick said...

You're really going out on a limb with that Senate prediction. ;)

At 2:55 PM, October 27, 2004, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i dont know anything about you or what you do for a living (my first guess would be editorial writer), but i'd be willing to wager that it has nothing to do with Minnesota politics.
if you'd like, i'd even place a friendly wager ($1 - or nothing if you like) on your picks for president, congress and the MN house.

At 6:24 PM, October 27, 2004, Blogger MN Politics Guru said...

First, you're wrong on my job: it puts me right in the middle of things. Editorial writer was in my past, but it's not what I do now.

As for a bet, it's a nice thought, but how can I wager with Anonymous? Aren't you too busy penning great quotations anyway to be betting?

At 5:26 PM, October 28, 2004, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you can use MN Politics Guru, i'll use Sancho - that seems equally silly.

Anyway, I have to apologize. I automatically assumed you read only the likes of Chomsky, Dowd, etc. But if you were able to title one of last week's posts, "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail..." you must have come across Hunter Thompson's book somewhere along the line. So while I'd place myself a bit further up the political spectrum from where your postings situate you, I think we both can agree that political reporting hasn't seen anything better than that.

Enough with the nice, nice. Kerry may win, but if it's much more than 48-47, i'll write you another apology. Also, Kennedy by more than 6% and the MN GOP loses no more than 4 seats - and only because there are a half-dozen unbeatable GOP incumbents retiring.

So how about it? of the three propositions above, whoever takes the best of the three has to donate $1 to the other's choice of MN specific political organizations.

At 7:41 PM, October 28, 2004, Blogger MN Politics Guru said...

Chomsky? Never. Dowd? Puh-leeze. I've got better things to do with my time. Raoul Duke, now there's a good man.

I'll take that bet. No way will it be that close in the presidential race (do you really think Nader will get 5%?), and even Speaker Sviggum is acknowledging a loss of at least seven seats. I'm not worried.


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