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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

McCain-Pawlenty will not happen

Give it up, people: McCain-Pawlenty will not happen. Not in a million years. There are two reasons for this.

First, McCain is not trusted by the far-right base of the Republican Party. He is not trusted on abortion. He is not trusted on immigration. He is not trusted on taxes. There is no way that the base would put up with McCain, a person they do not trust, choosing another now-heretical former conservative as Vice President. A ticket that the base would see as consisting of two RINOs? Not gonna happen.

Second, McCain will not be the Republican's candidate. It increasingly looks like Bush is going to call McCain's bluff of demainding 20,000 or however many more troops for Iraq. When that fails to make things better, as it will, McCain will be history. McCain has tied his fortune to Bush's ~30 percent approval rating and his even worse approval rating on Iraq. As TPM points out, the Iraq War is now less popular than gay marriage, legalizing pot, or banning handguns. McCain is toast.

A conservative-Pawlenty ticket is much more probable than a McCain-Pawlenty ticket. So knock it off, media.

11 Comments:

At 3:21 AM, December 14, 2006, Anonymous Chris said...

You should know better than to make ironclad predictions about politics by now.

I don't know what's gonna happen, but it will be interesting to see if McCain can maintain his Rorschach qualities. I know lots of independents and some Democrats who simply project whatever their beliefs are onto McCain.

 
At 9:07 AM, December 14, 2006, Blogger Brian said...

Whatever happens in 2008, it will make the 2006 races look bland in comparison because 2008 is anyone's game but I will go waaaay out on a limb and specualte that Pawlenty will in no way be involved in anything remotely presidential in 2008. McCain will run but won't last very far into the primaries.

 
At 7:19 PM, December 14, 2006, Anonymous Chris Truscott said...

I think there's a chance for a dark-horse GOP candidate in 2008. McCain has problems, as you mentioned. Rudy is even more problematic and Romney has religion issues -- specifically, Mormonism doesn't play in the South.

I know he's a joke, but I think Brownback could make things interesting. Had he been re-elected, Allen would have emerged as the front-runner once people start really paying attention next summer/fall.

I had fun with the T-Paw for VP story a couple weeks ago. Enjoy:

http://www.mnpact.org/sblog/blog.php?id=415

 
At 5:29 AM, February 06, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

May be time to reconsider your views on this subject.

 
At 4:21 PM, February 07, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, that McCain guy stands no chance.

 
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