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Sunday, November 05, 2006

Predictions

Oh well, I'll do them now.

Senate: Klobuchar no problem. Maybe high single digits for the spread.

Minnesota's Congressional representation: All incumbents win, with the outside chance that Walz beats Gutknecht. Ellison wins. Bachmann wins and humiliates herself immediately nationally. Sixth district voters still care too much about teh gay and will believe the "scary liberal tax" issue just enough to beat Wetterling.

Governor: I truly do not know. I think that in order for Hatch to win, he needs to be up by several points in the last polls to overcome the incumbency issue (not because of the whole E-85 gaffe or anything like that). Is he up by that much? Hard to tell. Either he wins in a squeaker or he loses by less than two. Probably loses.

Attorney General: Lori Swanson no problem.

Secretary of State: Not enough information. Mark Ritchie has ads and is a better candidate; Kiffmeyer believes that the separation of church and state is evil and anybody who believes this needs to be removed from office (or forcibly converted to another religion). But I don't know what will happen, same for...

State Auditor: Pat Anderson [Awada] seems to have a pretty anti-government and anti-public school streak. I would like to see her go. But I don't know what will happen.

Minnesota House: I think the Democrats will retake this, and will have in the low 70s for total members (currently, it is 68-66 Republican).

Minnesota Senate: Not much change here, maybe a net of one or two seats either way, most likely down for Democrats. Democrats retain control (currently, 38-29 Democrat).

Nationally? Well, I think...

House of Representatives: Democrats will pick up a net of 20-25 seats, taking control.

Senate: I think there is a 50% chance they will get four seats, and a 50% chance they will get five. Five would tie it up in favor of Republicans.

8 Comments:

At 11:33 PM, November 05, 2006, Blogger Mark said...

Here's my two cents:

U.S. Senate: Klobuchar will win by 8-9 points, with a natural shift to the challenger in the final stage of the race and plenty of left-leaning voters, expecting a blowout, will pull the lever for Robert Fitzgerald, who's a pretty impressive candidate IMO.

U.S. House: I'm leaning more and more towards a Tim Walz upset in MN-01, particularly since Gil Gutknecht's anemic TV ads make it seem as though he's trying to lose. In MN-02, Coleen Rowley will struggle to get within a single-deficit deficit of John Kline. In MN-05, Keith Ellison will barely get 50% of the vote, while Tammy Lee will come in second place with 25%. Bachmann will beat Wetterling by four points in MN-06, hopefully getting only two years to regularly embarrass the state on the national stage. And in MN-08, Rod Grams will win most of the southern counties in the district and hold Oberstar to a soft 57% margin, waking Democrats up to the fact that they'll have to fight for this seat after Oberstar retires (or dies).

Governor: Unlikely you, I think "Republican whore", whether real or imagined, is a death sentence for Hatch three days before an election. Without the gaffes, Hatch would have probably won. Hutchinson and Pawlenty will both gain at his expense, particularly with suburban women. Even without "Republican whore", a five-point lead in a Strib poll two days before an election is a likely defeat, particularly with the negative momentum Hatch has. My guess is Pawlenty wins by six, much as I'd love to see him purged before the GOP convention in our backyard.

Secretary of State: Mark Ritchie has gotten all kinds of good press, while Mary Kiffmeyer has been taken to the woodshed repeatedly for being a partisan hack, but let's keep it real here. Nobody's paying attention. Through the power of incumbency and her long-standing ties to fast-growing central Minnesota, which have yielded supersized margins in and around St. Cloud in 1998 and 2002, Mary will squeak out another relatively close plurality. And bet on the fact that if Kiffmeyer doesn't win it by herself, Joel Spoonheim will certainly be there to help her out by taking tens of thousands of votes that would have likely otherwise went Ritchie.

Auditor: Pat Anderson is odds-on to prevail due to her ethnically-useful surname (don't be surprised if she remarries her ex on November 8 and changes her last name back to "Awada") and the usual DFL voter erosion to third and fourth parties. On the other hand, Rebecca Otto has a couple aces in the hole as well in an obscure race like this. Her surname is likely to win over some Republican-leaning voters of German-American descent while her previous legislative representation of Michelle Bachmann country (northern Washington County) could be useful in picking off more Republican voters who are familiar with her name. If Otto can fight Anderson to a draw in Washington County based on name ID, it would help her cause greatly. Still, Anderson is the likely winner.

Attorney General: Lori Swanson should win fairly handily, but it'll be much closer than the Strib poll last month indicated....probably within 5-6 points considering it's an open seat with third and fourth party noise.

Minnesota Senate: The Dems will hang on, losing a net of one seat (but Dean Johnson will fall to bitter defeat, meaning the DFL better be selecting their new Majority Leader right now).

Minnesota House: Geography and the number of open seats held by Republicans should make for a good DFL night. I'd be surprised if they didn't win the House back...and they'll need it with the increased likelihood of four more years of Pawlenty.

U.S. Senate Overall: Disappointing results considering the lofty and irrationally exuberant expectations, with Dems picking up PA, OH, RI, and probably VA, while losing MD to the GOP. Lieberman will either caucus with the Republicans or become Bush's new Secretary of Defense, allowing CT's Governor to replace him with a Republican in the Senate. A net gain of only two for Dems.

U.S. House Overall: Dems will narrowly take over the House, netting 20 seats, but falling far short of expectations.

 
At 12:26 AM, November 06, 2006, Anonymous Mark Johnson said...

Great predications..

My name is Mark Johnson, and I've been visiting Minnesota Politics for past few months

I’m a recent UC Berkeley Political science grad and I along with some fellow Princeton alums have been working hard to launch our own internet startup called Rizzleweb.com.
Rizzleweb is basically an online political community where people can log on and write performance reviews\comments for congressmen, senators, the president, and various other local and state officials across the country. I was hoping that if it would not be too much trouble you could place a link of our site on your blog. If this is not possible (which we completely understand), we still hope you will check out our site, and post some reviews.
Your contribution will encourage us to put more effort in improving our website.
Mark Johnson
www.Rizzleweb.com
markjohnson2020@hotmail.com

 
At 10:05 AM, November 06, 2006, Blogger Flash said...

""Bachmann wins and humiliates herself immediately nationally.""

I liked the second part of your prediction best!! If Bachmann wins, she will be the best thing for Democrats leading up to 2008!

Flash
Centrisity.com

 
At 5:18 PM, November 06, 2006, Anonymous Thor Von Clemsen said...

Overall the Dems need a pick up of six seats to win the senate. They'll more than likely hang on to seats they already have, meaning control will come down to the seats held by Republicans, where Dems will of course need six wins. In those races Dems have almost insurmountable leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a pretty comfortable margin in Rhode Island. Arizona and Tennessee appear as if they'll stay in Republican hands, meaning the Senate race will probably come down to Montana, Virginia, and Missouri, where Dems either are tied or have a very small lead.

Competitive seats held by Democrats:
New Jersey: D-Menendez looks like he'll hang on with recent polls showing him with a 5-8 point lead.

Maryland: Most recent polls have given D-Hardin a small lead, meaning he probably has a greater than 50-50 chance of winning.


Competitive seats held by Republicans:
Pennsylvania: R-Santorum has been way behind this entire election. Definite Dem pick up.

Rhode Island: D-Whitehouse has had a slight lead in recent polls, meaning he'll probably knock off incumbent R-Chafee. I'd say very likely Dem, but not in the bag yet.

Missouri: Very close race, but the most recent polls have actually given a pretty sizeable lead to D-McCaskill over R-Talent. Wonder if Rush Limbaugh may have screwed Talent's chances. I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance this goes Dem.

Ohio: Republicans have all but given this seat to D-Brown, with his double-digit leads in every poll. Definite Dem pick up.

Montana: D-Tester had a big lead throughout most of this election, but incumbent R-Burns has really closed the gap in the last few weeks, with some polls even showing him ahead. However, two polls conducted during the past couple days (by Rasmussen and USA Today) have shown Tester back up again with a 4-8 point lead. I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance this goes Dem.

Virginia: pretty close race, but recent polls have given a slight edge to D-Webb over R-Allen. . I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance this goes Dem.

Tennessee: Was competitive but recent polls have shown R-Corker has a pretty sizeable lead over D-Ford. Likely Republican, but not in the bag yet.

Arizona: R-Kyle has a pretty big lead over D-Pederson. Definite Republican win.

 
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