Amy Klobuchar is so far ahead it's not funny, Republicans are still ranting about Keith Ellison, and the governor's race isn't nearly as depressing as four years ago, but it's close.
posted by MN Politics Guru @ 18:49
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5 Comments:
I suppose the cynical comment would be "How will the DFL figure out a way to blow it all?" From Rick Kahn using a memorial service to give a political speech, to Skip Humphrey demanding that Jesse Ventura be included in all the gubernatorial debates, to John Marty's entire campaign, these guys are pretty notorious for figuring out ways to fuck these elections up.
On the other hand, we've seen several DFL politicians get enveloped in real or manufactured scandal this year already, (Dean Johnson, Coleen Rowley, Mike Hatch, Keith Ellison, now they're trying with Amy Klobuchar) and despite this, the DFL ticket is looking in great shape for November. The only scandal that produced a victim so far, Matt Entenza, actually left the DFL off in a much better position for the AG race, with a much better candidate, than they would have had otherwise.
Please guys, don't screw this up!
I think one of the big differences between 2006 and previous elections is that we've had four years (in the case of Pawlenty) and six years (in the case of W.) to watch Republicans govern.
And I think the verdict is in: these guys are losers. Corrupt. Incompetent. Craven. Smarmy. It's one thing to campaign against Repubs and talk about what they might do in theory. It's another to campaign against them now that they've compiled an actual record.
And that record don't look pretty, my friends.
Also, after years and years of Republican screaming and whining and ranting about some alleged Outrage maybe it's become a bit more like background noise than a crisis. Especially in light of their total incompetence in actually governing.
The Republican base--which seems to be about 30 percent of the voters, maybe 35 percent---is unmovable. Pawlenty and Bush could eat a live baby on TV and the base keep drinking the Kool-aid. But outside of the base, I think most folks are growing more and more skeptical of Republican rhetoric.
The media, meanwhile, is so in the tank for the right-wing they've grown gills. To quote Atrios or someone like that. Even the Strib and MPR.
I've been sensing a DFL rout in Minnesota in 2006 ever since those stunning special election victories in St. Cloud and Plymouth last winter. They've been remarkably adept at avoiding blowing it so far, but there are still six more weeks to get the job done.
I'm no longer worried about the Attorney General's office, but I'm wondering if the tide will be strong enough that we can pick off the GOP incumbents in the other constitutional office races. Mary Kiffmeyer's a very tough target given her roots in northern exurbia and central Minnesota, which always seems to produce overwhelming margins for her.
I'm not confident about the German surname Otto beating out the Scandinavian surname Anderson in the Auditor's race either (can't imagine why our illustrous Auditor ditched her previous last name Awada). As awful as Anderson is, expect her to get a disproportionate number of votes in Scandinavian heavy areas, particularly outstate. Otto might ciphon off a few Republican votes because of her German surname and because of her political roots in Michele Bachmann country, but I'm pessimistic about it being enough.
Ultimately, it's a good bet that Ritchie and Otto will be defeated not by Republicans, but once again by Green and Independence party candidates who collective take in 20% of the center-left vote from people "sending a message". The results of the last Minnesota Poll showing the GOP beating the DFL in voter affiliation 29-25 is a very ominous sign for Ritchie and Otto.
There is no Green candidate in the SoS race, but I take your point. There may be a different break this year when who actually votes for the IP candidates. Many more conservative voters are upset with their party this year than progressives. This does not mean your analysis is wrong, and will will have to work for every vote, but 06 may not be like any other year in the past, we'll just have to see.
Rowley is within 8 points of Kline, and closing the gap rapidly.
This might be the single best race in which one more dollar or one more supporter will make the difference.
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